Happy New Year: Diamond in a Day

Harrahs runs a rewards program where you can attain different levels based on different amounts of play. For my entire career as a poker player I have been a gold card holder which is the lowest rank in the total rewards program (TR).

To attain Platinum you need to reach 4000 Tier points which is accomplished from playing $40,000 through a video poker machine. To reach Diamond you have to gamble $120,000 through a video poker machine. Rewards credits on these machines accrue at 1 point per $10 in play. At video poker this is actually not as bad as you would think. The amount you would expect to lose at Jacks or Better (JoB) is roughly .46% of every dollar wagered playing a simple strategy. So you would only expect to lose $552 to achieve Diamond status. The real kicker is the variance where you may be up or down thousands of dollars in actuality.

So Harrah's also runs a promotion called Diamond in a Day where if you earn 3000 tier points in a single day they will give you Diamond status until April of the next calendar year. So obviously the maximum value of this comes from starting at the beginning of a new year and you will have diamond status for the next 15 months.

I did a quick calculation to figure out what the risk of losing a $2K bankroll playing for DIAD and the results were not pretty.

My spreadsheet can be downloaded at: http://www.megaupload.com/?d=HUSVFC02

The first sheet shows you the ROR calculation and the second one has a graph imported that shows the ROR for any Bankroll.

Since an average JoB player can run about 600 hands an hour if they are skilled, finishing 3000 points at the $0.25 level ($1.25 per spin) is impossible. You would have to finish 24000 hands which would take 20 hours of continuous play. The next viable level of play is the 0.50 level but the problem is that 20h of play is still pretty insane. However every level you move up the larger bankroll you need to reduce your risk of ruin (RoR). Playing the $1 level or $5 a spin would mean playing 6000 hands which is only about 10h of play and easily within reach if one were to be well rested and take a few breaks.

So the question is, what would be the chances of breaking a $2000 roll playing to try to get diamond in a day?

By changing the Green field called Bankroll you can find out for different bankrolls.

Chance of busting a bankroll of a given amount going for Diamond in a Day

$500 = 78.79% RoR

$1K = 58.51% RoR

$2K = 26.58% RoR

$3K = 9.13% RoR

$4K = 2.33% RoR

$5K = 0.43% RoR

Anyways feel free to download and play with the program. The last two fields Points gained and $ won lost can be configure to see your ROR at any point in the middle of perusing the DIAD. For example if you win a quick $500 at the beginning your ROR drops significantly and if you run bad in the beginning you may want to give up as your ROR will skyrocket.

I will probably try to do this sometime in Jan or Feb since the most value will come out of it if I have it for the full 15 months. Also remember that this will also make your ADT (average daily take) value skyrocket which will help you get much better offers from the casinos.

Good Luck at the tables
Greg